Serafin Grundl

Federal Reserve Board

I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board. This is my personal webpage where you can find links to my research papers.

Email: serafin.j.grundl@frb.gov

The analysis and conclusions presented on this website reflect my views and do not indicate concurrence by the Board of Governors or the Federal Reserve System.

Published Papers

A Simple, Robust Identification Approach for First-Price Auctions
with Yu Zhu — Journal of Econometrics, 253, 2026
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Concentration and Geographic Proximity in Antitrust Policy: Evidence from Bank Mergers
with David Benson, Samuel Blattner, You Suk Kim, and Ken Onishi — American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 16(3), 2024
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Two Results on Auctions with Endogenous Entry
with Yu Zhu — Economics Letters, 234, 2024
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Robust Inference in First-Price Auctions: Overbidding as an Identifying Restriction
with Yu Zhu — Journal of Econometrics, 2023
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership
with You Suk Kim — Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Identification and Estimation of Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions with Unobserved Auction Heterogeneity
with Yu Zhu — Journal of Econometrics, 210(2), 2019
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Consumer Mistakes and Advertising: The Case of Mortgage Refinancing
with You Suk Kim — Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2019
Published version Earlier version (PDF)
Empirical Relevance of Ambiguity in First-Price Auctions
with Gaurab Aryal, Dong-Hyuk Kim, and Yu Zhu — Journal of Econometrics, 204(2), 2018
Published version

Other Published Papers

Once Burned, Twice Shy? The Effect of Stock Market Bubbles on Traders that Learn by Experience
with Haibei Zhu, Svitlana Vyetrenko, Kshama Dwarakanath, Tucker Balch, and David Byrd — 2023 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
Published version PDF version

Working Papers

Cyborg Adam Smith reading Mostly Harmless Econometrics
Claude Code as an Empirical Economist:
Like Humans but Without the Tails
2026
Companion website: claude-code-economist.com
A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists
2026
Companion website: claude-code-economist.com
Assessing the Common Ownership Hypothesis in the US Banking Industry
with Jacob Gramlich, 2026
Benjamins for the Benjamins: How Equal Split Inheritance Laws Favor Younger Siblings
with Stefan Kassem, 2026
The Effect of Common Ownership on Profits: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Industry
with Jacob Gramlich, 2018
Nonparametric Tests in Moment Equality Models with an Application to Infer Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions
with Yu Zhu — Old Manuscript

FEDS Notes

How do Rural and Urban Retail Banking Customers Differ?
with David Benson and Richard Windle, 2020
The Branch Puzzle: Why Are there Still Bank Branches?
with Elliot Anenberg, Andrew C. Chang, Kevin B. Moore, and Richard Windle, 2018